Did you know that there are driverless vehicles already operating on our roads??!! I sure didn't...which I found particularly disturbing, as it's my job to know something about everything. At least that's the way other people (read: friends and family) might look at it. Needless to say, I found myself intrigued at how much closer this may be to reality than I realized.
A few weeks ago, I was driving up from Florida to Massachusetts, for an obstacle course race. One of the little inconveniences of driving long distance is that eventually, you have to look for new radio stations. I mean, there are only so many times you can listen to the same Cd's, and I don't have a Bluetooth connection yet for my radio. So there I was, surfing the radio for something decent to listen to...in an area apparently bereft of radio signals. Suddenly, on came NPR (National Public Radio), beginning a program on driverless cars!
At the forefront of the drive to driverless vehicles appears to be Google. Google has not only developed and tested it's vehicles, but has already logged considerable mileage on public roads. While some experts say that 2020 is extremely unlikely to see these vehicles on the road for consumers and that even 2025 may be too optimistic, there is a company that says it will have it's vehicle ready by 2017. Although in all likelihood, that vehicle would probably be limited to a specific, well defined operational area at that point.
Another interesting aspect are the ramifications of this new technology on other areas. From car insurance to car manufacturers (who are now getting serious about entering the game) to taxi service and beyond. Even reliance of governments on petty traffic enforcement like speed traps would be impacted by this new technology. Computers would keep vehicles from exceeding speed limits (which by the way could probably be raised) or parking illegally. In fact, this new technology would potentially lower the need for individual ownership of cars in the first place, resulting in no need for them to park at all.Of course, once I started thinking more about this, it became apparent that, like Uber and current airport limo services, driverless 'taxis' would make multiple pickups and drops routinely. Taking it a step further, since there are now no drivers needing to return home, much longer...substantially longer...trips would now be possible. Leading to larger vehicles as well as increasing complexity.
Can you imagine, millions upon millions of people scheduling daily (hourly?) rides of virtually unlimited distances? Potentially hundreds of thousands of vehicles criss-crossing the cities and country to meet these needs. At first I thought of the concept of airline hubs...concentrating riders regionally. This was different however. Even the airport hub system requires people to start from a limited number of airport locations.
And that's when it become clear. There was already an industry that was moving millions of items daily to and from almost anywhere. And one particular company in fact that had not only pioneered the logistics necessary for this, but was at the forefront today of this industry. FedEx! After all, picking up people/packages from numerous locations and transporting/delivering them to their destination is a very similar process. While there are any number of technology/software companies to watch in relation to building/operating the actual vehicles, I would be very surprised not to see FedEx as a big winner when it comes to actually implementing a new driverless vehicle-for-hire network. Possibly even operating like a utility with multiple companies actually owning and operating the vehicles themselves.Another interesting incidental impact would be on the whole concept of Transit Oriented Development (TOD), where developments are concentrated near mass transit hubs. These TOD's generally eliminate the need for individual transportation (read: cars), while allowing residents easy access to any other similarly interconnected locale. But with the advent of these driverless vehicles, it would no longer require a person to live near these mass transit hubs, which may put a completely new light on even this aspect of our lives.
We never quite know how much change a new technology may bring. In the end, driverless vehicles may impact our lives in ways that we can't even imagine today. One thing is for certain, if the technology succeeds in putting 'no-one' behind the wheel, the changes will be immense!
What do you think about driverless vehicles?
